23 December 2009
Dear Fellow Investor
I hope this mail finds you enjoying well deserved rest after a year that was quite a roller-coaster ride.
In between all the all the friends, family and eating I have started thinking of next year.
I am not big on forecasts of any nature as there is s huge body of evidence that shows that forecasts are of no use whatsoever.
What I do however do is look at what my current thinking is and think of events what will surprise me.
This has allowed me to be prepared for things that are outside my current investment view.
I think its an exercise you will also find valuable....
Not just for investing but every aspect of your life, as it stops you from becoming too focused on what your current view on a subject is and forces you to expand it.
It is unlikely that things will develop exactly as we think they would. But, having considered more options allows us to assign probabilities to different outcomes and so better prepares us for what eventually takes place.
Here are a view ideas for you to consider.